Turkey’s election news -- Threat to EU membership?

May 9, 2007

As of May 16, Turkey may have no President. The current President, Ahmet Necdet Sezer is due to step down on May 16. His successor will be elected by Parliament, not the people of Turkey.

Current Foreign Minister Abdullah Gul had been proposed by the ruling AK party, but was opposed by secularists who are afraid that Gul will make the country more Islamist, like Iran. The secularists are led by the military, whose threat of a coup has jeopardized Turkey's accession into the EU.

Here is a recap of what has happened:

• April 27 - Opponents in Parliament boycotted the first round of voting. The military stated it was ready to take action to preserve the country’s secular democracy.
• April 29 - One million opponents ralllied to keep Turkey secular. They demanded that the AK party withdraw Gul as a candidate. Turkey's stock market plunged 8%.
• May 1 - The Turkish Courts ruled the first round of voting was declared unconstitutional since there was no quorum.
• May 2 - Prime Minister Erdogan has asked Parliament to change the constitution to allow general elections directly choose the President. He asked for the first general elections to be held on July 22.
• May 6 - Lack of support from Parliament, which is controlled by the military-led secularist faction, forces Gul to withdraw his candidacy.

Next steps: Erdogan could call for election of a new Parliament, and then re-submit Gul as a candidate. Or he could continue to press for a change to the Constitution that would allow for General Elections. However, an AK party win could trigger a military coup.

What Turkey’s election threat to EU membership means:
Under Erdogan, Turkey has progressed economically. FDI has increased from $1 billion to $20 billion annually. GDP growth has been 7% annually since 2001. Both Erdogan and Gul are credited for progress on EU accession talks. Most Turks feel that the AK party can maintain a balance between Islamic beliefs and secular governance.

The EU warned it would be bad for Turkey’s accession plans to the EU if the military intervened in the political process. The army has ousted four governments in the last 50 years, most recently in 1997, when it acted against a cabinet in which Gul served.

Although the Prime Minister runs the country, the Presidency has emotional leadership since that was the position held by the found of modern Turkey, President Ataturk. In addition, the President is the Commander-in-Chief, and apppoints not only the heads of the armed forces, but also heads of the universities and courts.

According to many analysts, the real struggle within Turkey is between the secular military powers, or the Muslim democratically elected powers. Behind this struggle is also a fear by the secularists that the Muslims will further erode their power by increasing democracy and joining the EU. (See IHT, Getting Turkey Right ; Der Spiegel, Coup Threat May End Turkey’s EU Dream )

Action steps:
Keep an eye on headlines from Turkey over the summer. If a military coup takes place, this could be bad for both emerging markets funds and European funds.

Source; RFE, Turkey: A Divided Country Searches for Its Identity; Turkey: Islam, Secularism Clash in Presidential Elections

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